2012 Project Investment Forecast of Downstream Industry

In 2011, investment in real estate, railways, and highways, which had a significant impact on the sales of construction machinery, followed a trend of highs and lows. The main reason was the shortage of funds. In 2012, the expected capital environment will be somewhat relaxed compared to the second half of this year. However, in the context of the "structural adjustment" of the 12th Five-Year Plan period, there is little chance of a similar "zero investment" in 2008. Through a comprehensive survey of the downstream industry, analysts at China Construction Machinery Business Network hope to make a comprehensive forecast and analysis of the downstream industries of construction machinery next year.

Real Estate: Accelerated Decline in Investment Growth For the construction machinery industry, the great significance of real estate is that in the past five years, real estate investment accounted for about 23% of fixed asset investment. After the past two years of policy control, the current real estate market is at an important juncture. According to historical experience, the sharp decline in sales will inevitably lead to a sharp decline in investment growth. At present, the inventory of the entire real estate industry has reached a historical high, and destocking has become the primary goal of the entire industry.

China Construction Machinery Business Network analysts believe that the current round of real estate investment growth accelerated back in September, in the context of bank loans, trust financing is limited, the decline in real estate investment growth trend will continue. Since 2011, real estate investment has maintained a high growth rate, and 10 million sets of affordable housing have played a significant hedge role. The target for affordable housing in 2012 is not yet clear, but it is relatively certain that the growth rate is certainly lower than in 2011. Under the influence of the declining investment in commercial housing and affordable housing, the growth rate of real estate investment in 2012 will inevitably drop sharply. It is expected that single-digit months in the first quarter of 2012 are likely to be single-digit or even negative. The annual growth rate will fall back to about 15%.

Railway Investment: Ensure that the funds for key projects are placed in the two most important pressures before the investment in railway construction. One is capital and the other is safety. Security has determined that during the entire 12th Five-Year Plan period, railway investment will not be invested as large as the previous three years, and the use of engineering equipment will weaken. Recently, the biggest problem plaguing railway investment is funding. Under the influence of the high debt and poor financing channels of the Ministry of Railways, it is unlikely that many shutdown projects will return to work in a short time.

However, judging from the information passed at the just-concluded Central Economic Conference, support will be given to key project countries. Recently, the Ministry of Railways has allocated funds for some key projects, and some projects have been resumed. China Construction Machinery Business Network analysts believe that for 2012, railway investment is expected to not have much improvement, will continue the low investment since the second half of this year, especially in the first quarter of 2012, the same year and the absolute value will be more ugly. However, it is expected that in the second half of the year, there will be moderate loosening of funds and an increase in the amount of investment. Railway infrastructure investment in 2012 is expected to be around 500 billion.

Highway construction: It is difficult to make high investment. Relative to railway construction, the degree of concern for highways is weaker. The main test is the strength of local finance and the financing capacity of local investment and financing platforms. Although the keynote for 2012 is still a proactive fiscal policy, road construction still faces the challenge of no money.

The first is the impact of real estate regulation on fiscal revenue. As of the end of November, land revenues in many cities have shrunk dramatically. In 2012, the situation will become more severe, and there is little possibility of regulation and relaxation. With respect to financing channels, the bank’s credit channels have been maximally utilized, and there has been almost no possibility of significant growth; the rest is direct financing. At present, there are more positive signals in this area, and the government has also made great efforts to create conditions for direct financing. . In Shanghai and Guangdong, pilot local bonds have erupted and the demonstration effect is obvious. However, the amount of financing is relatively small, and the local debt must first ensure the construction of local security housing. At present, other forms of direct financing activities are also more active, but the amount of funds relative to land revenue and bank credit is much smaller, which is insufficient to support large-scale road construction. Based on the above factors, the analyst of China Construction Machinery Business Network believes that it is difficult to surpass the 2011 road construction investment.

Mining industry: Steady growth Under the background of rising resource prices and steadily rising demand, fixed assets investment in the mining industry has continued to grow. From the operation of the first 11 months of 2011, China's mining industry has seen solid growth in solid investment. trend. The annual growth rate is expected to be around 20%.

In 2012, under the global economic slowdown environment, resource prices are expected to fall from high levels, but there is little possibility of a substantial drop. Investment in the domestic mining industry is expected to continue to grow steadily.

Water conservancy construction: The good news worthy of expectation Since the “No. 1 Document” in 2011 locked in water conservancy construction, the enthusiasm of the entire society for water conservancy construction has been unprecedentedly high. In the first 11 months of 2011, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets of the water conservancy management industry was 29.3%, much higher than that of railways and highways. As we all know, the contents of the “No. 1 Document” each year are all issues that the country needs to solve and the focus of the whole society. The main assessment indicators of local government leaders will be concentrated here. Therefore, local governments will have greater impulses in water conservancy construction.

Water conservancy construction is also facing the problem of "money." The Central No. 1 document proposed that "10% of the proceeds from land transfer should be used for irrigation and water conservancy construction." On July 4, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Water Resources issued the “Circular on Raising Funds for Irrigation and Water Conservancy Construction from the Benefits of Land Transfer”, and made detailed calculations in terms of accounting caliber, accrual time, use of funds, and supervision and management. Provisions. Although the source of funds has been clearly defined, the current situation of local finance shortages can not be ignored, especially in the face of sharp decline in land revenue, real capital investment in water conservancy construction is worthy of attention.